Russia will not export oil subject to Western price cap, deputy prime minister says

  1. Poland wanted a low cap as the current ones is already above market value and 3 times the market value a year ago and over double what China and India are currently paying for Russia oil

  2. “We’ll just sell it to Brazil, India, and China for $30 a barrel. How you like that, stupid Banderites!”

  3. While Brazil has bought some oil from Russia because our (current, soon to be former) president is a fascist asshole, Brazil actually produces more oil than we consume. While we still need to buy refined oil, as we don't have the refining capacity for all the oil we produce, we are not really major importers of Russian oil overall.

  4. Brazil is considered self-sufficient in petroleum since 2015, but it doesn't have the capability to refined it here, so if it isn't already refined there we most likely won't buy from Russia.

  5. Actually it's exactly those countries who will be most affected by those sanctions, because of means of transportation (ships) were mostly european. If you read documents, you'll see that they don't cover piped oil, so....yea... Poland Germany Slovenia Hungary...they are still getting the same stuff for the same price. They also don't cover "oil products", so if they'll manage to refine it then yea, its not oil so, nothing wrong selling those! Go figure.

  6. The amount of oil and gas that Europe buys, can never be sold to other countries. No transportation, no pipelines, no demand, ...

  7. They could just do that and sell at production cost..say €40. That way they don't have to shut down production (expensive) and run that way for say 12 months...That sticks it in the eye for the West who pay Saudi etc. top dollar per barrel!

  8. When the west wont buy it for more than 60.00 a barrel, and India/China sees nobody else is going to buy it... What do you think their pricepoint is going to be? It's obviously not designed for Russia to provide the west with the oil at any price so much as it is to drop the price of what they can get elsewhere.

  9. It’s not that India will pay less, but the pipelines going to India are already at capacity. You can only push so much fluid per unit time.

  10. India is raking massive discounts. Ive read that ruzzia is basic very little money on Indian oil sales. Now India can negotiate even harder.

  11. The countries involved in the price cap attempt have already stopped their imports for the most part. I don't think this will significantly affect export volume.

  12. Imagine being a large country, rich in resources, desperately needed by a wealthy group of neighbouring countries. Imagine having an almost monopolistic position to become extremely wealthy, help your society transition from basket case planned economy to something modern. Imagine fucking that up completely, for a pointless war with a third rate army that has wasted billions in funding on corruption.

  13. Iran is a literal theocracy and they’ve managed to successfully leverage their oil wealth and NOT be ruled by a single nutcase. How do you do such a worse job than Iran? Russia can’t even use the “the CIA and MI6 screwed us up” thing that Iran has.

  14. Also, a country with good to great scientific education. Russia could've become an IT powerhouse, but Putin chose to enrich himself and his henchman by selling out his country, leaving his general population impoverished.

  15. Imagine a distant wealthy country jumping with glee at the fuck-up, and draining the wealth for this wealthy group of countries.

  16. Is watching a corrupt dictator, dying of cancer, be further humiliated on the world stage a guilty pleasure? Asking for a friend.

  17. Solarize all homes and decouple from terrorist oil nations. Fuck the cost. It’s worth it, and the investment will eventually pay for itself from tech evolution.

  18. Oh. Then it would be a shame if accidents happen to those transport vessels that cannot be insured by western entities.

  19. Having Russia not export oil at all is arguably even better than having Russia export oil at $60. Have fun, Russia.

  20. I mean, okay? They go from getting $60/barrel to $0/barrel for those barrels they can't export, and to $30/barrel to what India or China will pick up, you know, if they had any way to get the oil, which they don't because Russia would have to export it over the seas to get it there and there's a finite amount of not-Western-and-not-Western-Insured vessels out there that have got to be at saturation by now.

  21. India and China will buy from them, but there's only a limit on how much they can buy and they know Russia is desperate to sell, so Russia cannot sell it at market prices.

  22. Well they technically do, they just need to find non western ships, insured by companies not from the west or who themselves are insured in the west, oh and take the long way around Africa.

  23. They will just sell to India, China and non aligned countries. It's been months export to the West are nearing zero anyway.

  24. This is the ultimate game of chicken. Will the world run out of oil with a huge spike in prices or will Russia agree to sell their product at the price cap? My guess is much higher oil and gas prices are inbound. After all, Russia produces the 2nd or 3rd most amount of oil in world on parity with Saudi Arabia. If that shut in production that’s about 11 million barrels a day coming off the world market I’m long oil Companies stocks right now. This will be interesting and shouldn’t take more than a month or two to feel the full impacts.

  25. Azerbaijan is already suspected in buying cheap Russian oil for its internal consumption and selling the oil it exctracts to Europe instead. China did something similar with LNG.

  26. Venezuela was shut out of USA markets because it’s proximity to the USA and the volume that it can pump allow it to compete with Saudi Arabia. No other source has that ability for USA markets.

  27. No no no, the West 'brought democracy' to those countries that just so happened to have oil and were restricting access. It's totally unrelated.

  28. Amazing that the western economies, the so-called champions of free market capitalism, don't seem to understand that deals area two way street. You do not get to arbitrarily determine what another person must sell a product for.

  29. Uh what? As a member of a free market you absolutely are allowed to say “this is the most I’m willing to pay for something. If you don’t sell it to me at that price, I ain’t buying it”.

  30. The intention behind the price cap is to lower the profits of russia. Of course China and India could pay more than 60$ but they would be pretty stupid to do that. Europe isn't going to buy it over 60$, so why would they? If russia doesn't want to sell for less than 60$, they won't sell anything. That's how India and China can argument.

  31. I don't think Russia understands how negotiations work. They always seem to be threatening and telling people that things can only be done their way.

  32. If you own a marketplace, you can for sure dictate prices if you want. And sellers in that marketplace can then choose to sell their products elsewhere.

  33. You are in way over your head and you clearly have not thought through the dynamics. The West will be fine in any scenario. With this price cap they are slowly chipping away at Russia’s margins as deals expire and all available non-EU and G7 shipping maxes out.

  34. I don't see how the price cap is even legal. With open trade agreements, countries can't insist by law how much one country can sell it's resources to them for, especially setting a price well below current market values.

  35. It's perfectly legal in an open market. You can set your selling price and I can tell you I only can pay that much. You're free to find someone else to sell to.

  36. Most of the major shipping companies are based in the EU. Ships don't move without insurance, and the major insurers are also based in the EU. Russia is free to sell oil, countries are free to buy that oil. However if they want to transport it by EU vessel with EU insurance, those are now restricted entities.

  37. Afaik the main mechanism of this is not a hard cap of the price. It's a restriction of contract insurance and transportation insurance for contracts over the cap price. Most insurers are based in eu, so this will (or expected to) quite negatively affect any contacts with over the cap price.

  38. I can see post-Soviet states like the Baltics being happy about this price cap, but it seems a bit out of character for timid countries like Germany.

  39. Nice subtle 'fan the flame'. Too bad the world is willing to suffer with Ukraine knowing Putin can't survive unless his machine of corrupt autocracy gets lubricated.

  40. This is a pretty serious issue heading into winter. I really doesn't make sense that the West is doing this right before winter. If it's a warm winter everything's going to be okay but if it's a cold winter there's going to be serious problems.

  41. Winter works both waus, russia cannot store and if they stop pumping all infrastructure will freeze, also once you will stop pumping the oil field cannot be restated so easily, sometimes never.

  42. The only way to continue to sell to China/India/Brazil is if their storages isn't full if it is... they won't buy from you unless it is cheaper then 60$ so they can resell to others.

  43. I'm confused... didn't the West declare Russia to be a terrorist state, which means they can't trade with them, nor can they trade with countries who are trading with Russia?

  44. This has obviously been their plan all along. It’s been working so well that I feel like we’re watching a chess grandmaster about to take down a rival.

  45. My question is what does OPEC+ say? I thought that was the authoritative body overseeing oil production and output affecting the price of oil

  46. OPEC is just a cartel. What is OPEC going to do here, exactly? Every other member of OPEC benefits from Russia's folly here - they get to sell more of their oil to replace the Russian oil missing from the market, at the full rate.

  47. Who cares! You monster can sell your sticky oil to Hungary and other of your evil allies, and I sincerely wish you vicious country's business going to collapse and totally bankrupt asap.

  48. Great, Ruzzia will have to cap a few wells or try and find new customers they can use their own tankers for delivery as Lloyd’s won’t insure them.

  49. China refuses to use Rubles to pay and buys on a discout. If they are feeling generous, they will give them $61 per barrel. I don’t think they are feeling generous.

  50. Hungary: a testament to the fact that whenever a group is assembled their will be an irrepressible asshole somewhere among them.

  51. Then Russia will export to Turkey, and then its business as usual. Erdogan did exactly that with buying oil from Isis.

  52. Russia should sell Ukraine the oil for 70 and west buy it from Ukraine at 90. The reason for this? Because Russia makes no damn sense if the western price cap is 60 and India and China giving you 40. At least let’s make this extra dumb.

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