SPY puts everyone?

  1. I have a SPY PUT $424 expiration 12/30/2022. I break even at $388 and am currently 33% down. This rally since CPI on 11/02 has lasted longer than I’d hoped. It’s tough to hold but I’m waiting for Powell. I’m tempted to buy another but they’re expensive for me.

  2. I think secretly a bunch of people here are short and about to be broke as fuck… there’s maybe a handful of us left with calls.

  3. But the lines, aren't they convincing? Surely this falls under the "technical analysis" umbrella! Perhaps more lines would convince you.

  4. Unless the PCE inflation comes in hot I expect the SPY to break thru and year end rally and sucker everyone in only to realize in 2023 rates are going to be 5% for years.

  5. I would say that you didn't have to circle the tops and explain that they were lower highs because it's blatant to see but I forget that some of these people are regarded.

  6. thats what everyone and they Uber driver thinks, thefore you will get ironed out on the way up - Blackrock has $10T of assets to pump the price and smoke out everyone like you.

  7. This is the sort of TA that confirms my biases. I like it very much and will use it to guide my puts next week/month.

  8. Man, watch this thing have a huge wick down after it passes the 200ma just to destroy all the bears before destroying the bulls who went in at that level. Then maybe a continuation down. But the market must take the most people’s money first.

  9. I bought puts on this 3 weeks ago thinking I was smart, ponied up and bought 12/23 410’s. Now I’m nervous that it’s looking so predictable and people here are posting their shitty TA graphs on it

  10. Nah, I have been a good boy for Christmas, so Santa is coming. Hope it not Cramer dressed in a Santa suite though.

  11. Betting against the market in historically one of the best months of the year (December), and after the fed said it would consider easing on the breaks (lower rate hikes).

  12. Market is in a well defined downward trend. There is a high probability S&P won't breach the 3-touch resistance line (Red) in the near future (~3months). The 50 week moving average (Blue) is also reinforcing the resistance by converging with the resistance line. My Play: Waiting for SPY to reach 410 and then buying puts with 4 to 5 month out expiries with strike prices of anywhere between 390 to 370. Closing out the positions at the first big drop that brings SPY below 400 again.

  13. The lower after the trendline touch needs to be taken out just like what happened every other time. If banks want to go short they need to take out stops. Where better to find stops than the last lower high. So trend line might get broken a little

  14. no. market’s going sideways until may. source: 2002 SPX. do you think option sellers are stupid? everyone sees this, especially them.

  15. There’s no way this thing breaks out to upside at this point…oh wait this is the most irrational market to have ever existed!!!!

  16. The S&P 500 is currently in a confirmed downtrend, with another lower high being made today. Prices are unable to breakout from resistance around 4100 and have now pulled back below 4000. Next support is at 3800, followed by 3639.50.

  17. sorry for the noob question but i just started investing in SPY and SP indexes, so based off this i should stop? thank you

  18. since everyone is betting for massive selloff/ resistance line bounce, it might be wise to bet for rally to continue. nothing makes sense anymore. just too many bearish posts imho.

  19. I am absolutely amazed at all the wishful thinking that says we will have a sustained rally for the rest of 2022 and into 2023. Y’all shills for the big funds out there?

  20. Yes, been stupidly holding them since September. I wanted to see how low SPY could go. (So far not low enough to break even lmfao ;_;)

  21. I wonder if somebody has a real statistical analysis of inverse Cramer trades. Thinking I might inverse paper trade his bs just to see how it pans out.

  22. I mean, we gotta see lower lows again. Ain’t no way, even if we don’t I’ll keep fighting the trend like a degenerate

  23. It was a massively lower low, what on earth are you talking about? Not even accounting for the wick, the close was a lower low as well. Not even close.

  24. sorry for the noob post. i've read all the comments below, what does this mean that SPY is going to tank soon? if so, what is the bottom? just trying to protect myself. i appreciate it. thanks

  25. It’ll break the trend. Inflation numbers are starting to print downward and the fed said that they will start slowing rate increases.

  26. Damnit. The more people post about their SPY puts on here, the more the trading algo and hedgies market manipulate the shit out of SPY to nuke the puts with Theta.

  27. It will probably break the trend temporarily just to destroy put premium and scare shorts out before tanking and destroying longs.

  28. nope. calls into it. puts for like a day, then calls all December. Have fun going all in puts for juicy loss porn

  29. Quit messing around with options? Save and invest 10% of your gross earnings into SPY/QQQ for 45 years. Sorry, there's no magic formula for investing success except for time and growth.

  30. In 45 years we might all be dead. Fuck that I don’t want to be rich and old. Need to be rich yesterday!

  31. I will wait to see a rejection of level There is no reason for stock to break out of resistance Inflation is not down yet, the cost of life has never been this high And on the technical point of view the 50 ema and the descending trendline give it take couple of points higher is where the bears are waiting to short No short squeeze for me yet, not this time I will short

  32. Online sales are up 2.2% from last year, that's good news but good news lags so yeah PUT it is.

  33. The only concern is the negative divergence from June low and way too obvious of a trend line for institutions to just grab all those puts to zero.

  34. Unregard for a moment. Wait until December FOMC to buy puts, there’s currently nothing that’s going to drag down SPY until the rate decision so if you buy puts on Monday theta will make you it’s bitch. The week of FOMC you can look to load puts as we should see some derisking leading into Thursday and then perhaps a big move down depending on JPows statements. Don’t just blindly buy puts though

  35. Got puts but the amount of people going on the same trade as me makes me nervous and the market will rip for an unexpected santa rally . Calls it is!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Author: admin