I know who I'm shorting in February

  1. where did you get your certification in shitposting? I got mine at 420 university on 69th ave.

  2. An older version of this line of thinking is do not invest in companies who give naming rights to stadiums/arenas.

  3. Microstrategy bought ads in 2000 during the superbowl advertising who even knows what. That year their stock fell from $333 to below $5 on the back of accounting fraud. Fast forward to just today some of their January puts went up 300% in a single day after FTX imploded. So yeah interesting times ahead.

  4. That math still sounds off though. Almost too easy, a lot of regards wouldve been billionaires by accident if it were true

  5. No money in far otm puts. They're priced accordingly. I said last January Tesla would trade under 500 by the end of this year. To put my money where my mouth is, it would have been like 20k per contract.

  6. Far? Pshhh not far enough. These would have been Congressional level returns. Ol' Pelosi would be proud. Evil. But still proud. Let's say "evil and proud". Great moniker for her future tombstone

  7. Why does Salesforce even need a Super Bowl ad featuring Matthew McConaugheny it’s a B2B enterprise software and one with dominant market share at that. Is the hope like some random CIO who just woke up from a coma is watching the game and has an epiphany to buy Salesforce?

  8. Basically. You’ve never worked under a CTO/CIO in a laggard firm. They are astonishingly ignorant of what’s happened over the last 20 years.

  9. It’s the same argument people say with Doritos having commercials every year. It’s not exactly about getting brand new customers. It’s about when you head to the store and have to buy it, it’ll catch your eye because if your subconscious seeing it on TV

  10. It reminds me of Lockheed and Boeing advertising their latest fighter jets. Like who's getting swayed to drop all their cash on jets apart from the Australian Government?

  11. unless you account for Cheetos/Pepsi and T-Mobile banners in every SuperBowl commercials and ad inside the stadium to know you never short specific companies- ever.

  12. They run another add where Mcconohey is doing a line off Barbie Margot Robbie’s asshole and he just says “quit being poor and buy some frustrating business software”

  13. This doesn’t make sense, but I guess that’s what makes this post belong here. You can’t spend $1000 to open a short sale

  14. You can if you pay someone $1000 to short $1000 of a stock. It's like the banana stand, you take a buck, toss a banana.

  15. Solid no, best case you would made like 900 or something depending on your position. If they were bankrupt you would made a 999$ and had your full collateral returned.

  16. It's also impossible to spend money to short something. You can short $1000 worth of stock, but then you add $1000 to your account's balance up front rather than subtract $1000 from it.

  17. Shorting has a maximum 100% upside. If all those companies went under you'd have $2000... Donno where the other billion dollars comes from.

  18. Kinda makes sense. A crazy expensive super bowl ad could be a Hail Mary attempt by a troubled company to get attention. It could also be an indicator of frivolous spending by the CEOs.

  19. Uh... We have also seen a pretty significant downturn in the market, so you'd probably need to go back decades and note when this kind of analysis was true.

  20. I doubt that. Best case scenario you’d make 1000$. The only way to become a billionaire would be with uncovered short positions, leverage or buying Puts.

  21. 1000, 2000, 4000, 8000, 16000, 32000, 64000, 128000, 256000, 512000, 1024000, 2048000, 4096000, 8192000, 16384000, 32768000, 64000000 ( - Lambo), 128,000,000, 256,000,000, 512,000,000, 1,240,000,000. 🤷‍♂️😎🍻

  22. Did you hack my portfolio? I spent all night last year doing my DD while watching the Superbowl... Good news is Cathie thinks I'm getting close to "deep value" territory.

  23. Lol a 1000000x return? No. Conceivably a millionaire depending on the strike price and date of your puts and when you bought them.

  24. ... That's just another way of saying if you had shorted the market right before the correction you would be rich. No fucking shit.

  25. I just don't understand why would you go and let the shorts be ahead of the game by telling him what you're going to short in February... I would just make it a surprise and fuck these assholes over... It's smarter for all of us just to join in February and just make a date and fucking short the shit out of these companies screw them all

  26. This reminds me of Josh Brown’s anecdote about how one of his hedge fund friend’s strategies was to short any company that has paid to have its name on an NFL stadium.

  27. OK so right what you're saying is that these companies have money from venture capital and are desperate to get acknowledged so they advertise for the Super Bowl but because they are failing companies only kept alive by dumb money investors and operating out of desperation, within only a few months they tank with relative certainty?

  28. We have a perfect opportunity to test this theory. The super Bowl is coming up on Sunday, February 12, 2023.

  29. Um how? This guy could solve the mystery of how shorts are still going. Maybe he knows something we don't. I say we keep him for interrogation

  30. The math is not adding up to me. Oh well. It makes perfect sense if you just don’t think about it. That’s usually my strategy.

  31. Gonna buy PUTS on Affirm and Upstart tomorrow at open. Down +-20 % already after hours , but come on boys’, these companies are essentially worthless ☝️💩

  32. Is this really a take when the entire market has crashed? You could have shorted anyone and win.

  33. If the market goes down 20-30% again then sure it’ll work again. I doubt that happens unless we are somewhat green from now till then

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