Bottom is in. This IS the CRITICAL MARGIN THEORY via Collateral for shorts. This is NOT your DORITO of DOOM. This is SPY (as collateral) vs the price of GME. Below the Purple line, hedgies R fukt. Above the green line, hedgies 'bout to get fooked, possibly 150% fookt in a few short days.

  1. I’ve been thinking this for so long. Why do you think every time we break through critical margin, the price experiences major iv spikes, halts, etc. they then proceed to short us to oblivion because they need to to survive. Any breakthrough of critical margin likely triggers major risk events given their trs exposure. SPY is deteriorating fast, so they either bring GME to zero or blow up. I’ll let you take a guess which way this is heading.

  2. Kenneth Griffin of Citadel was bragging in that interview when he talked about how they had to look for ways to just survive one more day during the ‘08 housing crash.

  3. It seems to align with quarterly reports, it seems like a twofold attack, one you strike the price down to convince people to sell but at the same time you are aiming to buy them on the cheap to sell for high.

  4. yea, with march 18 it was about 7 days, and with may 12 it took about 10 trading days to get started, and then went sideways for about 50 days before peaking.

  5. They have had a habit of shorting it around earnings report time to push the “GME earnings down x% MSM narrative.” I’m expecting a juicy dip next Wednesday.

  6. Over half a million shares borrowed this morning and over a million this week to shorty short. They should just get this over with...rip the bandage off instead of slowly peeling away...either way I'm not leaving...I want these people to age and bleed and have stress induced health problems for the rest of thier lives. Playing and fucking with people in this limited lifespan we all have deserves nothing less.

  7. You know i was thinking, while writing this, My Minimum wait time on MOASS is until all of the float is locked in DRS by apes. Then my minimum wait time is until the entire out standing shares are locked in DRS.

  8. Unless you're buying and selling, or selling options, does anyone just hodling and DRSing care about a short term run up? I think it's interesting and does draw attention to GME outside this sub, but all I really care about is how to DRS more shares.

  9. thanks! comments like this make it feel like christmas. plus... it makes me nervous when i get positive feed back on my crayons.

  10. Lmayo I feel like a lot of GME hodlers found a new fetish during this battle. If not pain, edging. Because we all know what happens at the end. Boom.

  11. Note: OP's ratio of SPY / GME means that when the line goes high GME is under performing, and when it goes low GME is over performing. So the breakout at the bottom is where the trend was broken and GME was doing really well before massive loans were reported and relative performance was shoved back inside to continue coloring inside the lines.

  12. I believe they are net long on SPY. i'm not sure about their spx position. what i usually see with options in those two is that the deltas move in the opposite direction, so it could be a hedging thing.

  13. Awesome job! Great idea to ratio spy with gme! I do believe that there is something to be said for how high the SHF's can let gme go based on what the overall market performance is. I am convinced that the critical margin theory is not a straight line, but more like a moving upper boundary that shifts based on the market as as a whole.

  14. yes, i dont think its a straight line. a ratio i think helps fix that into a straight line. and then i think line can move based on new positions added, for example more money/collateral, more drs/stock dilution.

  15. Everytime somekne says something “can’t” happen, it almost certainly always immediately happens. Let’s watch

  16. These charts mean nothing until there is action from the SEC. The market is manipulated for the upper 1%, so until they are held to the same standard as us retail folk, I take these charts with a grain of salt, but hope they are true.

  17. I will always believe critical margin theory is trash. If the position is bad enough the position will just be moved.

  18. I don't think the top is about apes specifically buying, I think it's institutions / other large players adjusting their risk portfolio. Every firm is rating GameStop seperately but they can see the turn around is likely, so at a certain risk point to other assets it's a "buy". This combined with DRS is what keeps GME/SPY range bound.

  19. I look forward to seeing if this pans out… or if this post gains steam whether the SHF monitoring this sub will do whatever they can manipulate the price to avoid this from happening and giving credibility to your theory.

  20. ok, let's play along - why does it only hit the line once in a while? If what you're saying is true then we should be hitting this line with much higher regularity - what's more likely the case is that you're the nth person to draw a line which happens to fit the data and then you're retrofitting a theory - it's called overfitting, extremely common in data science.

  21. I just want to thank you first for the first chat with the green text, for some reason I can fully understand what it is meant to convey just from reading the explanation and then the labels even though everything is brief.

  22. No one who has been here before or after last year would ever think of selling. That would be stupid. GME stock is a long long long term play. If you didn’t sell at 40, why would you now?

  23. Do you think the recent push towards making shorting easier for the masses might have some impact too? I keep seeing little articles mentioning it, as if trying to convince people to short ( and help shfs unload positions if that's possible?)

  24. This to me looks like it’s cloning cycles from May-Dec ‘21. We could very well hit new ATL. Wouldn’t be surprised if we hit $10-15 before entering another cycles range. Good news is they have nowhere else to go from here. Literally none. And that tasty dip will be scooped up fast myself included. BUY. DRS. HODL.

  25. I don’t care. I’m holding. Till it moons. Or gets stolen so I completely lose faith in the system and work to actively dismantle it. That’s on the table here. If we get fucked out of this we’re going to need to take it out of somebody’s hide. And like Miss Stormborn, we should work to break the wheel while we’re at it.

  26. Not to disagree with you but I'm thinking the current dip was because of the millions of shares that were dumped into the float by the institutions in the last few weeks. We'll see prices start to rise again once those shares are removed from the market (DRSed).

  27. Similar to kennyboi's $600 million loan that saved his skin, kennyboi now has access to some of this $2.2 trillion RRP via JPM. I expect these additional funds will be used to heavily short GME given the GME specific ETF that needs to look attractive to investors. IMHO GME may go a little bit lower.

  28. currently at 15.75 on the daily, 1.5 points over the top of the trend line OP drew, not sure what happens next, but we are def oversold at this point.

  29. thats your opinion. This is based on having collateral against gme. The chart would no move like this if it did not have any weight. It has been proven so far that it does. Each touch point is a turn around point and the points repeat touches on the same line, there fore linking ever shrinking collateral.

  30. it literally says next few days. labor day weekend, and ER coming next week do factor into price movement. i didnt say today. I guess the first sentence of "bottom is in", i inaccurate, but it was meant that the bottom is basically around this price range.

  31. It is so simple: If govs want money, all they need to do is enforce the law. I am happy to pay 25% of moass money towards my country... or we can drag this out forever and drs that baby which most likely would mean less taxes to be paid since CS shares are real and there to stay.

  32. yes thank you. there are just those two ways of preserving the ratio. drop the market and drop GME the same % to preserve the ratio. And you can see from previous days that today was the least relative drop to spy, because it was flat today from close to close. 14.35 to 14.34. this is what i was saying in there somewhere. in my last paragraph. so as for today, it seems to check out. i mean, its friday opex and max pain reached.

  33. that is a possibility, but never the less, it would cause a spike in GME shortly after, i give it a few days, which could be about 2 to 4 weeks, as seen in the past. the lower it goes the higher the % gain... but that is relative.

  34. Thanks for the excellent research and DD but please don't set any price targets/predictions. Some people might take this and start buying options expecting GME to actually hit that price and end up getting burned.

  35. The bottom is always in until the following week when millions of new shares are created out of this air.

  36. its not just a meme. because they will litterally use that number to get people to sell. there will be people who have orders in at 69, and the will go right up to it and fall right back down. it has happened before and will again. i remember when they did coin ipo, shot up from 300 to 420 in minutes and tanked.

  37. I’m just gonna nap, wake me up with MOASS starts. I’ll nod off a bit here and there while it shoots up and down repeatedly on its way up

  38. I think this is all strange considering this was when BoBBy was having a Sneeze. At peak of the Sneezing, immediately after Cohen’s exit, the price of GME & Popcorn started to flop.

  39. Such a dumbass concept, draw a line and call it critical margin. I can't get over how stupid this is

  40. A lot of price anchoring on this "DD" -- OP says it's not a Dorito, but provides past posts as evidence, with no primary sources to back up the critical margin THEORY (which I feel has merit, but I can't prove it.)

  41. Lines on a chart don't mean TA, ape. This is comparing two tickers and looking for correlations. TA is more like predicting movement based on shape of the line on a single ticker. Apes don't fight Apes.

  42. Lol retarded. We’re about to get hit with rising rates at the end of this month… things are surely going lower….

  43. I've been hearing "hedgies bouta get fucked" for so long that I just don't care anymore. This is such a non-starting shitshow now. Every day it's a new reason hedgies gonna get fukt and every day nothing happens. If it does, great, but I'm not sitting around holding my breath. This is getting boring.

  44. yea, and they have been getting fukt one way or another for the past couple of years. either they are drowning underwater, or they come up for air and there is a swarm of apes buzzing above to really fuck them. either way they are fukt. drs.

  45. Downvoting only because TA on a manipulated stock is dumb. Real dumb. Makes people play with short term options and loose all their money. Not for this

  46. Critical Margin Theory is true in general, but the assumption that SPY is the collateral is incorrect. You can learn more about the actual collateral hedgies use by first learning about the app they use to optimize their Total Return Swaps against their non-cash collateral.

  47. I love this, and it’s ironic timing with Citadels loan…but 600m isn’t enough to drop GME and alllll the other stocks simultaneously…I think everything is being dragged down, and it wasn’t bc of Citadels loan - to me that’s too “blinders-on”

  48. Well done OP, this is more advanced that what I can come up with. But when I look at the 2 yr chart it just jumps out at me that there’s a repeating cycle happening. It’s more compressed than previous, maybe because the market is declining as a whole which makes the ratio theory plausible. It also could be the increase in DRS. It’ll be interesting to see how it continues now that the market as a whole is in decline.

  49. TA guys are always talking about lines we've crossed and how hedgies are definitely fucked now and nothing ever happens. TA doesn't mean shit for GME

  50. Sure hope your wrong cause I'm trying to get in on this dip and my CS buy order goes through on 9/7. After 9/7 I sure hope your right.

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