I'm feeling pretty worn down myself and between the ratio and us still not hitting ath I'm starting to feel pessimistic about eth touching $10k this cycle. I know it's early but it just feels exhausting at this point and the ETF denial in May will probably knock us down another peg. I know it will get approved eventually but who knows when.
Why can't we ever have an eth fud free bull market? It's draining having to stress over these things even when they are almost always nothing in the long run.
Other people's skepticism, vitriol, etc. is exactly what creates the opportunity for crazy bull markets. If everyone agreed ETH was awesome, it would mean everyone is already on board and there would be little to no upside left to capture.
Do I want ETH ETF to be approved in May so we can see number go up and end this charade? Or do I want Gensler to suffer one more humiliating legal defeat and delay the pump, extending the bull cycle into EOY 2025?
The latter runs the risk of the futures ETF where people speculate it didn't do well because it happened in a bear market. I'd rather it just happen while we are in the bull cycle. (I don't think it happens in May based on all the reasons which have been discussed but I'll celebrate if it does)
The way the narrative changes overnight makes me think there is someone paying shills to shit on Ethereum. And now that you mention it, have you noticed how every single time someone sends an article about Ethereum the first answer is some theoretically objective pros an contras that are full of stupid BTC maxi bullshit? Well, that is what newbies are fed when they check the biggest crypto sub.
Curious where you think it's going to go this cycle? I agree it's not going to $20-30k and I'm not asking to hold you to it or call you out if you're wrong. I just like hearing the different opinions from people who don't fall in the "eth is going to a mill" this cycle.
It's also possible diminishing returns are a thing and it's 3.5x was an example of that. Maybe this one is simply 2x? Hoping that isn't the case with ETFs being involved etc but it really could go either way.
So, I had the video call for a new bank account a couple of hours ago! I didn't talk about anything particularly Ethereum related but I could get answers for my questions regarding AML measures and how to treat transfers of significant sums from crypto exchanges.
Really appreciate the follow-up on this. Sounds like it shouldn't be a huge concern for you. I'm still trying to figure out how I'm going to explain some of my early purchases before eth was on Coinbase and had to use some tool to send Bitcoin in and get eth in return. I don't really have a great way to prove or explain that. Obviously the block explorer shows me holding these funds for a length of time, and I believe I can trace back some of my original purchases of the Bitcoin for the swap back to kraken.
I'd be interested in what they have to say about this. Depending on how the bull market goes I also intend to move much larger than normal amounts into my account and would prefer to not have my account frozen if there is a process to address it in advance.
The real question: Since I am 100% certain of the ETH ETF obtaining approval in May, Do I keep putting 100% of my DCA buys into ETH, or do I put like 20% into Polymarket?
I was bullish until I started digging this morning based on a post further down. You can see my last two posts for the links...but also in addition to my last two post links, sounds like Eric Balchunas is also turning bearish on an approval in May.
You're giving the SEC too much credit for thinking it through. Their track record proves they're obnoxiously stubborn with regard to crypto and while I was bullish even a week ago, I'm starting to doubt. I do think it happens...I don't think it happens in May.
Even Eric thinks it's hitting 10k in May.. I am just shit posting, but I do think everyone here is going to surprised to upside if ETF gets real traction with respect engagement between SEC and providers..
Yes, Eric was one of the few voices who was much closer to being right in the last cycle than most and also was a voice of wisdom that prevented me from making a very bad decision many years ago in terms of leveraging my crypto...so I think he has a better finger on the pulse than many...but that being said I still think that May is a bit too soon for that big of a rise. I'm not sure what his justification is for a 200%+ rise in 2 months prior to the ETF approval...he's a smart guy...smarter than me for sure...but I still think it's just too much, too soon. If we were already in price discovery and euphoria was just heating up, maybe...but we have a mountain to climb still just to reach and break the previous ath and then from there we still need to climb another $5000+. Just doesn't seem realistic.
Just pondering but if an ETH etf is approved and tradeable near the end of the bull market the selling from Grayscale could cause the cascading sells to end it or deepen the bear if there's not enough inflows to compensate
I view this as a concern even if we aren't near the end of the bull market. I think if the outflows happen, I don't imagine eth will see nearly the same inflows activity as Bitcoin has. Hope to be wrong or hope grayscale doesn't sell a ton.
I sincerely asked myself why I'm not really feeling the excitement that I enjoy feeling during a bull market, and I've concluded that it hasn't really started yet. It'll be real when we cross the old ATH. It's funny that we're not even past the old ATH and people are already predicting the end of the bull. Based on historical triangles, I expect to see at least 2.5x the old ATH before we even consider ending this run š¤·āāļø
Phiz does your prediction rely on an ETF approval, does it view an ETF approval as irrelevant to that target or if we get an ETF approval in the coming months do you predict higher than your 2.5x prediction?
I'm not a trader, I'm just a shitposter. My prediction doesn't have anything to do with fundamentals or the real world, it's just what I feel in my loins. I expect to see $10k this cycle, that doesn't mean it's going to happen.
I get it, and I know you're not a trader. I just didn't know if your loins were leaning one way or another based on the fundamentals or if they changed anything regarding what they're telling you lol. Appreciate you following up though.
No this is valid, I conceded in my response to csasker...market is a poor term as it pertains to my argument. I simply meant the two big boys (BTC/eth)
what does "the market" mean here? With stocks, people mean index funds. with cryptos, they usually mean individual ones. check ICX or NEO and how well that went...
Yeah you're making a valid point. Market is too wide a scope and by that logic I'd be wrong taking it at face value to mean the entire crypto market. I suppose what I was referring to was the two blue chips (BTC/eth) but that isn't really apparent using the term "market". Valid criticism.
As long as we are all agreeing that we are going to touch $10k this cycle. I'm tired of thinking it's bullshit, then starting to believe it mid bull, like last time.
They're likely referring to the geth concerns everyone has been discussing the last few days regarding it being the majority client and the risks that presents.
I think we hit $10k so at this point I'm much more interested in the when and not the if but can't seem to get a solid sense. Most thoughts/opinions I've seen point to a mid 2025 top, but I'm hoping $10k is a lot earlier, like a close out 2024 timeline. But that's just wishful thinking and highly unlikely imo.
Saw your posts yesterday. Just wanted to express how upset it makes me that this space is still so prevalent with scams and I'm sorry you were the victim of one. It's all of our greatest fears. Kudos to you for handling it so well but I'm sorry you even have to deal with bullshit like this.
Seeing the BTC ETF approved the other day gave me flashbacks to early March of 2017, when the BTC ETF was first denied and ETH started its huge bull run.
This was the exact moment I stopped trading. I sold my entire stack betting on the ETF getting denied and dragging eth down. And eth did drop on the announcement for a couple min and then reversed course. I did get back in but took a pretty large haircut. I realized nothing in crypto is as predictable as it seems.
Ah, but you see my perceptive friend, you are falling victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is 'never get involved in a land war in Asia,' but only slightly less well known is this: 'Never go in against a Cramer when funds are on the line'! Ha ha ha ha ha ha!
If you're sorting by new, refer to the post directly below yours with gensler stating that this is not meant to be viewed as the US gov saying crypto is legit. At least not as upcoming ETFs are concerned.
Actions act louder than words in this case, and the reason Gensler made that statement is that he knows the market will think that ETF acceptance = endorsement.
I think Genslers view is that crypto isn't legitimate but the recent court ruling left him with his hands tied. Overall, I'm only concerned with his views as they pertain to an eth ETF approval, beyond that he can take shots at the other crypto assets all he wants.
Yeah timing is a big question I'm not sure about. My instincts say 2025, but who knows how the ETFs play into all this. I'm thinking we see a run up to previous ATHs, the fed rate cuts, there's a period of retracement and sideways movement for like 6 months, then the bull market resumes and we peak in 2025.
Yeah I'd love for it to be sooner (this year) but my gut has been saying the same that it's likely next year, and although I've seen a number of people calling for a $17-20k ath, I think we probably touch $10k and then start to see the final pullback leading into the bear. Guess we'll see. I'd love for it to touch $17k for others who have a higher number, I just think that's probably a bit too optimistic at this point based on the decreasing returns. Happy to be wrong on that though.
So much fud and selling of ETH atm. Every post i read is about one of these. No one is selling BTC as it has an almost guaranteed pump in the next few days. For the same reason, many dump ETH for BTC. Well, BTC is definitely overbought atm. A lot of that is short-term buying. Every cell in my brain is telling me that once the ETF is approved, we slowly see massive inflows in ETH. Many that sold will return for the next ETF narrative.
I'm not trying to be Debbie downer, but my guess is this will only be semi true. Some of that cash pouring in will be the ETF's and there won't be a way to shift it into Eth. My hope is that Bitcoin sees a successful ETF, it does cause eth to run up with it (although I'm sure there will be a larger gap between Bitcoin and eth this time around) and then with the eth ETF looming people start to try and front run the eth ETF expecting a similar performance and eth gets a nice run up of its own.
Same. Iām not sure if Iām just older and closer to retirement or just hate my job but like damn can we take off already
I'm feeling pretty worn down myself and between the ratio and us still not hitting ath I'm starting to feel pessimistic about eth touching $10k this cycle. I know it's early but it just feels exhausting at this point and the ETF denial in May will probably knock us down another peg. I know it will get approved eventually but who knows when.
Why can't we ever have an eth fud free bull market? It's draining having to stress over these things even when they are almost always nothing in the long run.
Other people's skepticism, vitriol, etc. is exactly what creates the opportunity for crazy bull markets. If everyone agreed ETH was awesome, it would mean everyone is already on board and there would be little to no upside left to capture.
It's a valid point. I appreciate it.
Do I want ETH ETF to be approved in May so we can see number go up and end this charade? Or do I want Gensler to suffer one more humiliating legal defeat and delay the pump, extending the bull cycle into EOY 2025?
The latter runs the risk of the futures ETF where people speculate it didn't do well because it happened in a bear market. I'd rather it just happen while we are in the bull cycle. (I don't think it happens in May based on all the reasons which have been discussed but I'll celebrate if it does)
I know it's a cesspool but when did
The way the narrative changes overnight makes me think there is someone paying shills to shit on Ethereum. And now that you mention it, have you noticed how every single time someone sends an article about Ethereum the first answer is some theoretically objective pros an contras that are full of stupid BTC maxi bullshit? Well, that is what newbies are fed when they check the biggest crypto sub.
Not sure what happened but my original response posted as a response to myself:
Edit: Moved this to be a response to somebody else not myself
Where are the $20-32k moonbois now? Amazing how they suddenly go quiet when we drop 15%.
Curious where you think it's going to go this cycle? I agree it's not going to $20-30k and I'm not asking to hold you to it or call you out if you're wrong. I just like hearing the different opinions from people who don't fall in the "eth is going to a mill" this cycle.
To be honest the last ATH was the most depressing one ever. Not even 3.5x previous ATH ...
It's also possible diminishing returns are a thing and it's 3.5x was an example of that. Maybe this one is simply 2x? Hoping that isn't the case with ETFs being involved etc but it really could go either way.
So, I had the video call for a new bank account a couple of hours ago! I didn't talk about anything particularly Ethereum related but I could get answers for my questions regarding AML measures and how to treat transfers of significant sums from crypto exchanges.
Really appreciate the follow-up on this. Sounds like it shouldn't be a huge concern for you. I'm still trying to figure out how I'm going to explain some of my early purchases before eth was on Coinbase and had to use some tool to send Bitcoin in and get eth in return. I don't really have a great way to prove or explain that. Obviously the block explorer shows me holding these funds for a length of time, and I believe I can trace back some of my original purchases of the Bitcoin for the swap back to kraken.
So, I'll have a video call with the bank for some formalities tomorrow.
I'd be interested in what they have to say about this. Depending on how the bull market goes I also intend to move much larger than normal amounts into my account and would prefer to not have my account frozen if there is a process to address it in advance.
The real question: Since I am 100% certain of the ETH ETF obtaining approval in May, Do I keep putting 100% of my DCA buys into ETH, or do I put like 20% into Polymarket?
I was bullish until I started digging this morning based on a post further down. You can see my last two posts for the links...but also in addition to my last two post links, sounds like Eric Balchunas is also turning bearish on an approval in May.
I mean, they are basically guaranteed to be insta-sued by Blackrock, and then the court will smack the SEC down again.
You're giving the SEC too much credit for thinking it through. Their track record proves they're obnoxiously stubborn with regard to crypto and while I was bullish even a week ago, I'm starting to doubt. I do think it happens...I don't think it happens in May.
Even Eric thinks it's hitting 10k in May.. I am just shit posting, but I do think everyone here is going to surprised to upside if ETF gets real traction with respect engagement between SEC and providers..
Are we talking about Eric Conner or some other Eric?
Yep Eric Conoar.. I think he is also shit posting but he had pretty low target last cycle like 3k or something like that
Yes, Eric was one of the few voices who was much closer to being right in the last cycle than most and also was a voice of wisdom that prevented me from making a very bad decision many years ago in terms of leveraging my crypto...so I think he has a better finger on the pulse than many...but that being said I still think that May is a bit too soon for that big of a rise. I'm not sure what his justification is for a 200%+ rise in 2 months prior to the ETF approval...he's a smart guy...smarter than me for sure...but I still think it's just too much, too soon. If we were already in price discovery and euphoria was just heating up, maybe...but we have a mountain to climb still just to reach and break the previous ath and then from there we still need to climb another $5000+. Just doesn't seem realistic.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Is this who I think it is just with a name change?
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Haha, I'm glad you said something was wondering what ever happened to you since you haven't been around.
Just pondering but if an ETH etf is approved and tradeable near the end of the bull market the selling from Grayscale could cause the cascading sells to end it or deepen the bear if there's not enough inflows to compensate
I view this as a concern even if we aren't near the end of the bull market. I think if the outflows happen, I don't imagine eth will see nearly the same inflows activity as Bitcoin has. Hope to be wrong or hope grayscale doesn't sell a ton.
BlackRock drops ESG approach for 'transition investing' focus
I'm just going to out myself as being dumb. Can you eli5 what this is saying and why its beneficial to us (if that is in fact the case).
I sincerely asked myself why I'm not really feeling the excitement that I enjoy feeling during a bull market, and I've concluded that it hasn't really started yet. It'll be real when we cross the old ATH. It's funny that we're not even past the old ATH and people are already predicting the end of the bull. Based on historical triangles, I expect to see at least 2.5x the old ATH before we even consider ending this run š¤·āāļø
Phiz does your prediction rely on an ETF approval, does it view an ETF approval as irrelevant to that target or if we get an ETF approval in the coming months do you predict higher than your 2.5x prediction?
I'm not a trader, I'm just a shitposter. My prediction doesn't have anything to do with fundamentals or the real world, it's just what I feel in my loins. I expect to see $10k this cycle, that doesn't mean it's going to happen.
I get it, and I know you're not a trader. I just didn't know if your loins were leaning one way or another based on the fundamentals or if they changed anything regarding what they're telling you lol. Appreciate you following up though.
Gas above 200 gwei
The burn is such a nice bonus..."oh the price is pulling back? That's cool, we are still just gonna burn through that circulating supply..."
BTC at 87.5% of ATH so we should be at $4268 already š
Comparison is the thief of joy. Just enjoy the profits.
Technically if you bought real projects like btc and eth. The guy that bought colorcoin, eos, or even lrc are hurting af.
No this is valid, I conceded in my response to csasker...market is a poor term as it pertains to my argument. I simply meant the two big boys (BTC/eth)
what does "the market" mean here? With stocks, people mean index funds. with cryptos, they usually mean individual ones. check ICX or NEO and how well that went...
Yeah you're making a valid point. Market is too wide a scope and by that logic I'd be wrong taking it at face value to mean the entire crypto market. I suppose what I was referring to was the two blue chips (BTC/eth) but that isn't really apparent using the term "market". Valid criticism.
$3k POAP soonTM
Beautiful. Love the back to the future font! Classy poap
The $20k moon boys will seem reasonable compared to the $50k moonboys, both will round-trip the cycle :')
As long as we are all agreeing that we are going to touch $10k this cycle. I'm tired of thinking it's bullshit, then starting to believe it mid bull, like last time.
Imagine the smell if we top out at $9k
Lol my number is slightly under 9k so while I will feel awful for those waiting on $10k, I'll still be celebrating ;)
BREAKING: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce says the SEC won't repeat the same mistake of delays with ETH ETFs:
Love seeing this!!!
Care to elaborate a bit?
They're likely referring to the geth concerns everyone has been discussing the last few days regarding it being the majority client and the risks that presents.
Now that we are in a bearish phase after a couple of green days ... who thinks we will (not) reach $10k in this cycle?
I think we hit $10k so at this point I'm much more interested in the when and not the if but can't seem to get a solid sense. Most thoughts/opinions I've seen point to a mid 2025 top, but I'm hoping $10k is a lot earlier, like a close out 2024 timeline. But that's just wishful thinking and highly unlikely imo.
Good Morning. I just wanted to say how truly grateful I am for this group from the bottom of my heart.
Saw your posts yesterday. Just wanted to express how upset it makes me that this space is still so prevalent with scams and I'm sorry you were the victim of one. It's all of our greatest fears. Kudos to you for handling it so well but I'm sorry you even have to deal with bullshit like this.
Seeing the BTC ETF approved the other day gave me flashbacks to early March of 2017, when the BTC ETF was first denied and ETH started its huge bull run.
This was the exact moment I stopped trading. I sold my entire stack betting on the ETF getting denied and dragging eth down. And eth did drop on the announcement for a couple min and then reversed course. I did get back in but took a pretty large haircut. I realized nothing in crypto is as predictable as it seems.
I have a face for spotify, and a voice for reddit. A youtube channel is out of the question for me.
Lol, then I shall take what I can get and just enjoy your posts here I suppose.
Ah, but you see my perceptive friend, you are falling victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is 'never get involved in a land war in Asia,' but only slightly less well known is this: 'Never go in against a Cramer when funds are on the line'! Ha ha ha ha ha ha!
I wish you had a YouTube channel for all sorts of life advice. This post is pure gold.
Doesn't the price action kind of make sense though? Hear me out.
If you're sorting by new, refer to the post directly below yours with gensler stating that this is not meant to be viewed as the US gov saying crypto is legit. At least not as upcoming ETFs are concerned.
Actions act louder than words in this case, and the reason Gensler made that statement is that he knows the market will think that ETF acceptance = endorsement.
I think Genslers view is that crypto isn't legitimate but the recent court ruling left him with his hands tied. Overall, I'm only concerned with his views as they pertain to an eth ETF approval, beyond that he can take shots at the other crypto assets all he wants.
Oh you'll definitely hit that
I agree but here's hoping we're both right about it. The other question lingers of the when? Trying to figure out if it's a late 2024 thing? Mid 2025?
Yeah timing is a big question I'm not sure about. My instincts say 2025, but who knows how the ETFs play into all this. I'm thinking we see a run up to previous ATHs, the fed rate cuts, there's a period of retracement and sideways movement for like 6 months, then the bull market resumes and we peak in 2025.
Yeah I'd love for it to be sooner (this year) but my gut has been saying the same that it's likely next year, and although I've seen a number of people calling for a $17-20k ath, I think we probably touch $10k and then start to see the final pullback leading into the bear. Guess we'll see. I'd love for it to touch $17k for others who have a higher number, I just think that's probably a bit too optimistic at this point based on the decreasing returns. Happy to be wrong on that though.
So much fud and selling of ETH atm. Every post i read is about one of these. No one is selling BTC as it has an almost guaranteed pump in the next few days. For the same reason, many dump ETH for BTC. Well, BTC is definitely overbought atm. A lot of that is short-term buying. Every cell in my brain is telling me that once the ETF is approved, we slowly see massive inflows in ETH. Many that sold will return for the next ETF narrative.
I'm not trying to be Debbie downer, but my guess is this will only be semi true. Some of that cash pouring in will be the ETF's and there won't be a way to shift it into Eth. My hope is that Bitcoin sees a successful ETF, it does cause eth to run up with it (although I'm sure there will be a larger gap between Bitcoin and eth this time around) and then with the eth ETF looming people start to try and front run the eth ETF expecting a similar performance and eth gets a nice run up of its own.